Simulating Climate Change with Airshed, Watershed, and Estuary and Living Resource Models


Session Date: June 1st 2016

Session Time: 3:40

Session Lead: Lewis Linker

Session Co-Lead(s): Rich Batiuk, Ray Najjar, and Carl Cerco

Session Abstract:

This session examines the approaches taken to simulate climate change in the Chesapeake with airshed, watershed, estuary, and living resource models.  Examination of climate change effects in other coastal and estuarine systems as well as the consideration of the long term observational history in the Chesapeake are other key features of this session. A survey and synthesis of climate change research and modeling in other coastal and estuarine systems will be examined.  A significant portion of the session will be directed toward the 2017 Midpoint Assessment of the Chesapeake restoration which will include an assessment of the influence of climate change on achievement of Chesapeake TMDL water quality standards.  To support the assessment the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) partners are developing modeling tools to quantify the effects of climate change on watershed flows and loads, storm intensity, increased watershed and estuarine temperatures, sea level rise, and ecosystem influences including the loss of tidal wetland attenuation with sea level rise.  Ultimately, in 2017 the CBP partnership will need to decide if, when, and how to incorporate climate change considerations into the Phase III Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). 

Presentations:

Time Title
3:40 Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Performance and Resiliency of Ponds in City of Virginia Beach - Nasrin Alamdari - PhD Student
4:00 Wave Climate in the Chesapeake Bay from 1979 to 2015 - Gangfeng Ma - Old Dominion University
4:20 Integrating Climate Change into the CBP Watershed Model - Kyle Hinson - CRC/CBPO
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