The Missing Link: Connecting Water Quality and Living Resources Models to Support Ecosystem-Based Decisions


Session Date: June 2nd 2016

Session Time: 1:00

Session Lead: Donna Bilkovic

Session Co-Lead(s): Tom Ihde and Lisa Wainger

Session Abstract:

The Chesapeake Bay is an extensively studied system, with a wide base of knowledge on physical, chemical, and biological processes and their interactions.  This information is codified in a number of models, including a linked watershed-hydrodynamic-water quality modeling system that supports current restoration efforts in the region.  However, far less attention and effort has been dedicated to coupling water quality with habitat, fisheries, and socio-economic models. Because the physical and biogeochemical habitat along with human activities strongly influence habitat and fisheries production in the Chesapeake Bay estuarine ecosystem, consideration of these linkages and feedbacks is essential to implement ecosystem-based management. One major challenge is to generate, dynamic living resource models that can respond to spatially explicit physical and biogeochemical drivers, capturing the spatial and temporal variability in system responses that are likely to occur in a system as large as the Chesapeake Bay. Studies considering the consequences of spatial distribution of changes are particularly needed for enhancing the understanding of the system as a whole and in the face of novel changes that may occur with climate change. 

For this session, we will invite presentations of models that either do or could integrate water quality and living resources into models of estuaries and their watersheds, including, but not limited to, the Chesapeake Bay system. In addition, socio-economic models that evaluate economic or social benefits of changes in fisheries or habitat are also welcome for their ability to enhance the management-relevant information that could emerge from coupled models. 

Presentations:

Time Title
1:00 Modeling dynamical feedbacks between flow, SAV, and water quality, with application to Susquehanna Flats - Larry Sanford - UMCES, Horn Point Laboratory
1:20 Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models to understand SAV-Water Quality Relationships across Space and Time - Michael Hannam - Smithsonian Environmental Research Center
1:40 Linking bivalve and seagrass models with reduced complexity watershed and estuarine models to support nutrient management, aquaculture production, and climate mitigation - Mark Brush - Virginia Institute of Marine Science
2:00 “Modeling Tidal Marsh Evolution Using a High-resolution Ecomorphological Model” - Karinna Nunez - Virginia Institute of Marine Science
2:20 Using coupled estuarine food web-hydrodynamic models to guide resource management decisions: Two distinct applications currently applied in coastal Louisiana - Kristy Lewis - George Mason University
3:00 The Interaction of Hydrodynamics and Phytoplankton Bloom in the Tidal James River, Virginia - Jian Shen - Virginia Institute of Marine Science
3:20 Integrating multiple system stressors and predicting cumulative effects of change in the Chesapeake - Thomas Ihde - ERT, Inc. (NCBO)
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