Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting: Moving ecosystem modeling from research to operation
Session Date: May 28th 2010
Session Time: 12:21
Session Lead: Raleigh Hood
Session Co-Lead(s): Robert Wood, David Green, Xinsheng Zhang
Session Abstract: Despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. As we endeavor to move towards ecosystem management it is essential that we acknowledge that, in the words of David Fluharty, 'It is extremely important to avoid making perfect knowledge of the ecosystem the enemy of using the good knowledge we have.' Operational modeling has great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage Chesapeake Bay and other coastal ecosystems. This session will focus on existing or developing ecological or ecosystem models that have great potential to become operational in the near future. We will also explore the challenges facing both scientists and managers in moving towards model operationalization and use.
Presentations:
Post-Session Review: Despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. Operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting has great potential to facilitate and inform ecosystem research and management, and also help protect human health in Chesapeake Bay and other coastal ecosystems. The focus of the presentations in this session ranged from reports from NOAA agencies on current efforts and prospects for implementing true, 24/7 operational ecological forecasting models in NOAA (Uccellini, Green and Brown), to current prototype operational nowcast/forecast models that have been developed for Chesapeake Bay (Friedrichs, Hood, Jacobs, Wiggert, Long, Mathukumalli), and also new models that might be implemented operationally in the future (Zhang, Evans, Bi, Martino, North, Kaushal). These presentations confirm that tremendous progress has been made over the last 5 years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Some exiting new developments include ongoing efforts to transition the Chesapeake Bay Sea Nettle forecast model to operations within NOAA (Brown), the formulation of new ecological forecasting models for pathogens like Vibrio vulnificus (Jacobs) and emerging empirical and mechanistic models for forecasting biogeochemical properties like dissolved oxygen (Wiggert, Long, Mathukumalli and Evans). Models are also being developed that can be used for forecasting fish habitat quality and recruitment (Bi, Martino, North, Zhang) and watershed nutrient and contaminant loads (Kaushal). New frameworks that facilitate the development and comparison of these models are now available (Friedrichs). Discussions in this session revolved around the challenges facing both scientists and managers in moving towards model operationalization and use. Session participants agreed to contribute to a NOAA Technical Report summarizing the presentations.
