Coping with uncertainty in modeling environmental resources: practices, pitfalls & recommendations from modelers, restoration biologists & managers
Session Date: June 1st 2010
Session Time: 11:46
Session Lead: Tom Ihde
Session Co-Lead(s): Howard Townsend
Session Abstract: Being aware of model parameter and structure uncertainty is necessary for understanding the expected outcome of management actions. Methods of dealing with model uncertainty are disparately applied around the Chesapeake Bay research and resource management community. The communication of these concepts and study results to managers is likewise disparate. Models are important as frameworks for identifying management priorities and research needs. Models are needed to understand the populations and to simplify the complex dynamics of ecosystems that the decision-makers seek to manage. Research studies and monitoring performed can ultimately help to reduce the parameter and structure uncertainty in model outputs. Thus, the most effective use of models and their results will both help managers understand the dynamics of the resources that they manage and identify research priorities that will improve the precision of model results; ideally, this process improves the reliability of model assessments and forecasts. However, the approaches used by scientists to address uncertainty in their modeling efforts vary widely, and these methods must be communicated effectively to resource managers if managers are to be able to correctly interpret model results for effective decision making. In this session we seek to bring scientists, biologists and managers together to share how uncertainty in model parameters and structure is assessed and documented, how that information is presented to managers, and ultimately, how that information is incorporated into resource management decisions. The opportunities for questions to the panel of presenters in both the morning and afternoon sub-sessions should provide many opportunities for shared insights into possible best practices for documenting and presenting different types of model uncertainties. The goal is to capture these shared insights as a list of recommendations for scientists for how to systematically deal with model uncertainty and effectively communicate their findings to resource managers and restoration biologists.
Presentations:
Post-Session Review: At our full-day Session, we had an extremely interesting and engaging day. This Session was a professionally-facilitated panel discussion structured to produce a list of key challenges and initial steps for moving forward on this difficult issue for Bay fisheries management. Participating on the panel were both key managers and modelers from the region with a diverse knowledge and experience in Chesapeake Bay issues; these included: representation from the newly-formed Fisheries Goal Implementation Team (GIT), NOAA’s Chesapeake Bay Office, Maryland DNR, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission; faculty of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, and the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (both Chesapeake Biological and Horn Point Laboratories); as well as consultants from Versar, Inc. and the Gentner Consulting Group, who possess a wide variety of experiences in approaching modeling uncertainty for applications in both the public and private arenas. In total, participants identified fifty-eight (58) challenges to making progress on modeling uncertainty for Bay issues based on the Session presentations and agreed these could be categorized into four (4) key topical challenges. These were: communication, data, risk, and a forum/process to address issues. The panel also identified a series of suggested steps forward to address these issues. This meeting was recognized as an important beginning in a necessary and iterative process of frequent collaboration between managers and modelers to conceptualize new models together and to communicate frequently throughout the model-building process to ensure that the models being built actually answer the questions that the managers need addressed. A full report of this Session will be available from the NOAA Fisheries Chesapeake Bay Office (Annapolis) July, 2010.
