| Title: |
Evaluation of the NOAA/NOS Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System upgrade (CBOFS2) temperature and salinity predictions |
| Abstract: |
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Ocean Service (NOS) Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System upgrade (CBOFS2) is presently being run in a quasi-operational manner by NOS/Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). It routinely generates water elevation, currents, temperature and salinity prediction fields. The hydrodynamic modeling set-up was designed and built upon Rutgers University’s Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Its suitability for being an Operational Forecast System (OFS) was determined by evaluating its predictions against observed data for a synoptic hindcast simulation spanning June 01, 2003 to September 01, 2005. This time period was selected due to the presence of an extreme meteorological event (hurricane Isabel) and very low and very high river discharge events. In this presentation, the temperature and salinity fields from CBOFS2 will be evaluated against the Chesapeake Bay Program data and also against predictions from other hydrodynamic modeling set-ups for Chesapeake Bay for the above mentioned 27-month time period. The comparisons will include the examination of vertical profiles at specific times (seasons) and also those at specific depths but spanning an extended duration of time such as 12-months so as to include seasonal variations. It is expected that such a study will show : (1) any systematic weaknesses/strengths associated with ROMS relative to observed data and also other hydrodynamic models and (2) provide guidance on further temperature and salinity evaluation efforts to be carried out in the future possibly including additional observational data sets. |
| Authors: |
Lanerolle, Patchen, Aikman, , |
| Presenter: |
Lyon Lanerolle - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - National Ocean Service
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