| Abstract: |
This presentation will highlight how the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) supply backbone capabilities for an operational ecological forecasting system. This includes support for applied research, technology transfer and implementation of a common modeling infrastructure. The NCEP is a recognized global leader delivering a seamless suite of operational environmental analysis, diagnostics and forecasts for a domain that now ranges from the sun to the sea, including weather, ocean, climate, water, and space weather prediction services. In order to address evolving user needs the NCEP is capitalizing on emerging scientific and technological advances and partnering with other agencies and institutions promoting ecosystem-based management. Recent efforts are targeting the transition of regional models and prototype ecological forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries. The models rely on variables, including air temperature, wind speed, sea surface temperature, salinity, and solar radiation from NOAA forecasted data. The operational concept is to apply relevant observations and partner models to NCEP infrastructure and increase data availability, access and distribution of integrated environmental services through Weather Forecast Offices and other operational centers to state and local authorities. Specific challenges include scalability, data assimilation, and verification for short term forecasts, seasonal outlooks and climate projections. Shared development, improvement in ocean and coastal models, hydrologic and land use models, and linkage with marine ecological and biogeochemical science are being advanced with an Earth System Modeling view. This presentation will focus on the continuing NCEP support for multidisciplinary activities required to transition ecosystem modeling from research to applications. |
