| Abstract: |
This presentation will identify the challenges and progress toward transitioning experimental model-based ecological forecasts into operational applications. NOAA has a long history of forecasting weather, tides, currents, floods, and fish stock through its various Line Offices and partnerships. In recent years the portfolio of experimental ecological models has matured and the infrastructure developed to tackle a broader suite of multidisciplinary and regional management issues. The lack of a robust framework and approach enabling transition of these models and derived forecasts, scenarios, and projections into sustained and durable environmental services limits the ability to meet user needs. The evaluation of requirements for service and operational improvement indicate that the integration of ecosystem and biogeochemistry models with existing climate, water and weather models is needed for ecosystem-based management and this shortfall presents unique development challenges. These include: understanding complex physical, biological, chemical, and behavioral interactions sufficiently to inform decision making over broad time and spatial scales; acquiring and assimilating adequate and representative observational and process data; testing and validating standard models; characterizing uncertainty in probabilistic forecasts; and providing adequate support to sustain operations. This presentation will provide examples of marine and coastal ecosystem model development and demonstration projects at NOAA and through regional partnerships that are contributing to a strengthened ecological forecast and warning system as a contribution to a broader integrated environmental service. |
