| Abstract: |
There have been increasing interactive effects of land use and climate change on water resources in Maryland. These interactive disturbances may have important effects on nutrient and contaminant loads to municipal drinking water supplies. Here, we develop and test a pilot application of the Chesapeake Bay Forecasting System regarding loadings of nitrogen, phosphorus, and road salt in the North Branch of the Patapsco River. The North Branch of the Patapsco River serves as a critical source of water to Liberty Reservoir, one of 3 major reservoirs operated by Baltimore City Department of Public Works that distribute an average of 265 million gallons of water per day to 1.8 million people in the Baltimore region. Analysis of long-term trends in the North Branch of the Patapsco River and nearby watersheds show increasing salinization due to road salt use, pronounced effects of record drought and wet years on nitrogen and phosphorus loads, and rising stream and river water temperatures. The objective of the pilot application involves collaboration with Baltimore City Department of Public Works to investigate and model the effects of extreme weather events and precipitation variability on the temporal distribution and magnitude of storm discharge rates and contaminant loadings. This information may be useful for informing watershed restoration strategies to increase resilience in ecosystem nutrient retention functions in response to extremes in precipitation, and as a potential support tool for predicting the quality of water withdrawals across different weather conditions. Application of the Chesapeake Bay Forecasting System may be useful in assisting efforts to predict and protect quantity and quality of water, and preliminary challenges and/or results from the pilot application will be discussed. |
