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Zhang, Xinsheng, JHT Inc. Contractor for NOAA, Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, Oxford, Maryland, USA, xinsheng.zhang@noaa.gov
Wood, Robert J., NOAA Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, Oxford, Maryland, USA, bob.wood@noaa.gov
Bahner, Lowell, CRC- NOAA Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, Oxford, Maryland, USA, lowell.bahner@comcast.net
Ludsin, Stuart A., The Ohio State University, Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, Columbus, Ohio, USA, Ludsin.1@osu.edu
Martino, Edward J., NOAA Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, Oxford, Maryland, USA, Ed.Martino@noaa.gov
Prasad, M. Bala Krishna, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Ct (Ste. 4001), College Park, Maryland, USA, mbkp@umd.edu
Long, Wen, Horn Point Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Cambridge, Maryland, USA, wenlong@hpl.umces.edu
Murtugudde, Raghu, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Ct (Ste. 4001), College Park, Maryland, USA, ragu@essic.umd.edu
Operational modeling offers the potential to educate and inform ecosystem management and the outlook and opinion of the general public for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. Striped bass (Morone saxatilis) supports important commercial and recreational fisheries in Chesapeake Bay. Improved understanding and forecasting of striped bass habitat suitability, and the interactions of striped bass and its prey are important from both scientific and resource management perspectives. We have developed a suite of life-stage-specific, striped bass habitat suitability models that can be used to evaluate and forecast how hydro-climate variability drives variability in habitat quality and quantity. Particular emphasis was placed on summer conditions, when the striped bass population is vulnerable to stress from warm temperatures and low dissolved oxygen. Model results suggest that Coutant’s temperature-oxygen “squeeze” could affect striped bass in Chesapeake Bay through predator-prey habitat overlap/separation and encounter rates, and vulnerability to pathogens. These models have been integrated into the Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting Modeling System, a joint NOAA-University of Maryland Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center effort that links atmospheric, hydrodynamic, water quality, and living resources sub-models to produce operational and accessible models relevant to Bay restoration efforts. One ultimate objective is to provide managers with decision support tools for planning ecosystem-based fisheries management.
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